A poll of likely Colorado voters released today shows Hillary Clinton 7 points ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House, and current U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet leading his Republican rival Darryl Glenn by 11 points.
Clinton lead Trump 41 percent to 34 percent when all major candidates are included. One in ten likely voters is still undecided on whom to back for president. Bennet lead Glenn 42 percent to 31 percent, with more than one in five voters undecided.
The poll, conducted by Franklin & Marshall College and commissioned by Rocky Mountain PBS and Colorado Mesa University, had a margin of error of 6 points. So both Clinton’s 7-point lead and Bennet’s 11-point lead are outside the margin of error.
The RMPBS-CMU poll stands in contrast to Colorado poll released earlier this month by Emerson College that showed Trump had a 4-point lead with a 3-point margin of error.
Dr. Justin Gollob, associate professor of political science at Colorado Mesa University, touted the methodology of the RMPBS-CSU poll, which included calling cell phones and having live interviewers instead of automated voices.
“Polling methodology is like chili recipes – they all turn out different,” Gollob said. “We feel ours is a proven methodology. Clinton’s lead has shrunk from August and the conventions, but the probability that Clinton is leading is strong.”
The RMPBS-CMU poll also found:
- Third-party candidates appear to be pulling more votes away from Clinton and Bennet than from their Republican rivals. Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian presidential candidate, polled 12 percent of likely Colorado voters. Clinton lost 3 points when other candidates were given as options; Trump only lost 1 point.
- Nearly one in four of the undecided voters said they were leaning toward Hillary Clinton. Some 17 percent said they were leaning toward Donald Trump and 16 percent toward Gary Johnson.
- Independent voters lean heavily for Clinton with 34 percent, Johnson has 26 percent and Trump just 12 percent. Some 22 percent of Independent or third-party voters are still undecided.
- Most likely Colorado voters have an opinion about both Trump and Clinton — and it’s pretty negative. Those with strongly favorable opinions — 18 percent for Trump, 19 percent for Clinton — paled next to the negative views — 61 percent feel strongly unfavorable toward Trump, 43 percent feel that way about Clinton.
- More than half the polled voters (55 percent) said they didn’t know enough about U.S. Senate candidate Darryl Glenn to form an opinion about him.
- Third-party Senate candidates are not polling as well as their presidential race counterparts. Libertarian Lily Tang Williams polled 3 percent, Green Party candidate Arn Menconi polled 1 percent and Unity Party candidate Bill Hammons received no support.
The RMPBS-CMU poll asked voters about several of the major ballot issues they’ll decide in November:
- Seventy percent of voters said they favored Proposition 106, the medical aid-in-dying measure that would allow terminally ill individuals to use doctor-prescribed medication to end their lives.
- Some 58 percent of voters favored Amendment 70, which would amend the state constitution in order to raise the state minimum wage from $8.31 an hour to $12 an hour by January 2020.
- Just over half of voters (52 percent) said they’d back Amendment 71, which would amend the state constitution to make it harder to amend the state constitution. It would require a certain number of signatures from each of 35 state senate districts and increase to 55 the percentage of votes required to adopt a constitutional amendment.
- Voters opposed Amendment 69 to create a statewide healthcare system, with 38% of voters strongly against it versus 15% strongly in favor.
Fewer than half of registered voters report hearing, seeing or reading a “great deal” or “fair amount” about these ballot issues.
The poll was conducted September 14-18 by Franklin & Marshall College. The poll tapped 540 registered voters in Colorado, including 174 Republicans, 172 Democrats, and 154 Independents.